Oscar Watch·Updated July 23, 2026

Who wins Best Picture in 2027?

Every 2026 awards-profile release, ranked by our Oscar Score — prediction-market odds, festival precursors (Cannes, Venice, TIFF), critical reception and awards-season timing, with box office a minor factor. Recomputed as the season unfolds.

1

Project Hail Mary

Mar 15
★ 8.7$683.3M
39
Oscar Score
2

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Apr 1
★ 8.3$1.0B
39
Oscar Score
3

The Punisher: One Last Kill

May 12
★ 8.3
36
Oscar Score
4

Hoppers

Mar 4
★ 8.2$372.0M
36
Oscar Score
5

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Apr 15
★ 8.0$90.6M
33
Oscar Score
6

Accidental Partners

Mar 12
★ 9.0
33
Oscar Score
7

The Sheep Detectives

Apr 30
★ 7.9$130.6M
32
Oscar Score
8

Voicemails for Isabelle

Jun 20
★ 8.4
32
Oscar Score
9

Elsinore

Dec 1
★ 0.0
31
Oscar Score
10

Shelter

Jan 28
★ 7.8$53.9M
30
Oscar Score
11

GOAT

Feb 11
★ 8.1
30
Oscar Score
12

Toy Story 5

Jun 17
★ 7.4$958.4M
29
Oscar Score
13

Backrooms

May 27
★ 7.1$384.4M
27
Oscar Score
14

The Mandalorian and Grogu

May 20
★ 7.0$344.8M
25
Oscar Score
15

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Apr 29
★ 7.1$689.5M
25
Oscar Score

The acting races

Top-billed performances in contending films, weighted by the film's Oscar Score and billing — plus curated critics'-buzz calls where the season has an obvious frontrunner.

Best Actor

1
Andrew Scott
Elsinore · Season-long critics favorite
88
2
Ryan Gosling
Project Hail Mary
39
3
Chris Pratt
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
39
4
Jon Bernthal
The Punisher: One Last Kill
36
5
Jack Reynor
Lee Cronin's The Mummy
33
6
Hugh Jackman
The Sheep Detectives
32

Best Actress

1
Sandra Hüller
Project Hail Mary
33
2
Anya Taylor-Joy
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
33
3
Deborah Ann Woll
The Punisher: One Last Kill
31
4
Laia Costa
Lee Cronin's The Mummy
28
5
Olivia Colman
Elsinore
26
6
Bodhi Rae Breathnach
Shelter
26

Methodology: Oscar Score = prediction-market implied odds (25) + reviews (vote-weighted TMDB rating, 28) + festival & precursor pedigree (TIFF People's Choice / Venice / Cannes / Globes / Berlin, tiered, 24) + awards-season release window (12) + audience buzz (7) + box office (4) — deliberately light on box office, which barely predicts winners. Acting scores weight the film's score by billing, with curated critics'-consensus and market frontrunners flagged inline. Prediction-market odds are a hand-maintained snapshot (no live feed); treat the whole thing as a form guide.

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© 2026 MoviesRankd. Data from TMDB.